The young staffer who saved the postal survey and gave Australia marriage equality

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The young staffer who saved the postal survey and gave Australia marriage equality

The path to this week's resounding "yes" vote was lined with roadblocks, villains and unlikely heroes.

By Michael Koziol

Peter de Waal never thought he'd see the day. The 79-year-old activist fought for gay rights all his life and now, on a sunny November day, the biggest fight was won. "Our community is a step closer to being equal," he said. "It was wonderful, wonderful, wonderful."

It was also bittersweet. De Waal's lifelong partner, Bon, died in May. They never got to experience the joy thousands of other couples soon will. And the moment was bittersweet for many others because overwhelmingly, gay and lesbian Australians didn't want a public poll on their right to marry. They saw it as unnecessary, unprecedented and demeaning. At street parties on Wednesday, speaker after speaker said the postal survey should never have happened.

And it almost didn't. The course of history can change on a dime and – for all the determination of Malcolm Turnbull and others to get marriage equality across the line this year – the path to this week's resounding "yes" vote was lined with roadblocks, villains and unlikely heroes.

In the Liberal Party, the biggest hero was a blokey heterosexual backbencher from northern Queensland, Warren Entsch. Eccentric and outspoken, the 67-year-old parliamentary veteran has advocated for same-sex marriage for more than a decade. Back then, "I was like a floater in a swimming pool – nobody wanted a bar of it," he says. "I was very, very much alone."

A couple embraces to celebrate the yes verdict.

A couple embraces to celebrate the yes verdict.Credit: Anna Kucera

When Turnbull took over from Tony Abbott, he asked Entsch if he'd like a ministerial portfolio. Entsch declined. "I had unfinished business that I needed to deal with," he told the PM. "I made it very clear that I was absolutely determined to pursue my advocacy in relation to same-sex marriage."

With three gay Liberals entering the House of Representatives in 2016, and Dean Smith in the Senate, Entsch now had a gang of five agitating for change. The group had a lot of support within the cabinet, too, but the government was bound by an Abbott-era millstone around Turnbull's neck: the plebiscite.

When that was blocked by the Senate, liberals and conservatives whirred into action. The so-called "rebel five" had rough plans – known by a few confidants – to force the issue to a head at several junctures: November 2016, February 2017 or after the May budget. At each turn, politics got in the way. The message from allies in cabinet was: "It's not the right time."

They envisaged a doomsday scenario in which, having stalled until the election, the party room once again committed to a plebiscite. That could have resulted in cabinet ministers quitting and crossing the floor to back a rebel bill. Ministers such as Simon Birmingham would not be forced into voting "no" on the floor of Parliament. It would have destroyed the joint.

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Two men celebrate above a rally on Oxford Street on the night the result was announced to Australia.

Two men celebrate above a rally on Oxford Street on the night the result was announced to Australia.Credit: Louise Kennerley

Turnbull "shared the same frustration that we had", says one MP. "It just needed to be cleared off the decks in 2017. It was dominating everything that we were doing." Others outside the rebel group, such as Victoria's Jason Wood, shared that view and were in the PM's ear about it.

Meanwhile, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton was trying to forge a way through. He had taken interest in Entsch's earlier idea of a voluntary postal vote, floated during negotiations over the compulsory plebiscite. Entsch never loved the idea, but believed it might appeal to crossbenchers like Nick Xenophon as a cheaper method of getting the same result.

Tiernan Brady delivered marriage equality in the only two countries to legalise it through popular vote.

Tiernan Brady delivered marriage equality in the only two countries to legalise it through popular vote.Credit: Louie Douvis

Dutton championed the postal vote publicly, but it had a major problem. The solicitor-general had advised the government it was likely unconstitutional. For months, the proposal lingered without a clear way forward – until Daniel Ward, a young staffer in Attorney-General George Brandis' office, had a brainwave.

The idea was to conduct a survey, rather than a ballot, through the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The Australian Electoral Commission could be used to supply the electoral roll without actually conducting the vote. By mid-July, the idea was percolating around the ministry and Brandis took it to cabinet in Perth later that month.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull went on a media blitz to herald the resounding "yes" vote.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull went on a media blitz to herald the resounding "yes" vote.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Brandis, like Turnbull, never liked the plebiscite on principle, but he came to be its saviour. The inevitable High Court challenge to the survey's legality was rapidly tossed out in a 7-0 verdict. Ward, the bright young lawyer who came up with the fix, now works as a legal adviser to the PM. And with Special Minister of State Scott Ryan away sick, it fell to Finance Minister Mathias Cormann to execute the survey.

It was fraught with danger. The last time an undertaking of this nature had taken place – a 1998 poll about delegates to a constitutional convention – fewer than 50 per cent of voters responded. As Turnbull acknowledged on Friday, "people in my own party opposed it", and the rebel five were willing to press ahead and cross the floor if the "no" vote won with a low turnout.

In the end, the survey succeeded as a democratic exercise. The 79.5 per cent participation rate and 61.6 per cent "yes" vote allowed Turnbull to embark on a national media blitz declaring the result a loud affirmation of love, respect and fairness. He celebrated the win over dinner and champagne with his wife Lucy at the Lodge.

But outsourcing the decision to the public limits how much credit Turnbull can realistically take. "It was a victory for the nation," says one diplomatic Liberal MP. It is worth recalling Turnbull's speech, introducing the plebiscite bill, when he said: "We put our faith in the Australian people and we know that their answer, whether it is yes or no, will be the right answer, because it is theirs."

Turnbull's confidence in a "yes" vote was not misplaced. Since 2009, support for marriage equality has rested at about 60 per cent or higher. The campaign, bruising and unedifying at times, didn't alter the numbers. The "no" camp claims to have changed 1 million minds, but this is based on the most generous interpretation of the polls.

Director of the Equality Campaign Tiernan Brady has now delivered marriage equality in the only two countries to enact it by popular vote: Australia and Ireland. The strategy from day one was simple and consistent: a positive campaign focused on getting people to support their family, friends and neighbours. What the pundits and politicians said was largely irrelevant. The battle for hearts and minds had already been won, it was simply a matter of getting people to participate in the vote. A crack team - including GetUp's Sally Rugg, campaign director Tim Gartrell, lawyer Anna Brown and politician Alex Greenwich - ensured that happened.

But there were difficulties. In April last year, Australian Marriage Equality spectacularly fell out with Rodney Croome, the veteran gay rights campaigner. He said he resigned to focus on stopping the plebiscite, while AME had to walk both sides of the street, preparing to win the plebiscite if it proceeded.

Animosity between the two groups is still palpable. Croome's role in the campaign was limited to Tasmania, and he spent nearly three weeks of it on holiday in Europe.

Asked to identify a low point, Brady says the whole campaign was emotionally draining. But the "nightmare moment" came late on a Thursday in September, when Abbott was headbutted by a drunken anarchist wearing a "yes" badge in Hobart. Over in Sydney, Brady's phone lit up. "We had to nail it immediately," he says. So rapid was their condemnation that journalists replied to their emails asking what had happened.

The "yes" side's appeals to fairness and equality were old and well-known, meaning the "no" campaign – with Abbott and Christian lobbyist Lyle Shelton as figureheads – was always going to command the headlines. Its relentless focus on other, more controversial LGBTI causes such as the Safe Schools program was clever, but ultimately unsuccessful.

Some Liberals are concerned about where the Coalition for Marriage will turn next. They point to the privacy notice accompanying its website and phone app, declaring subscribers' personal information may be passed on to like-minded organisations. It brewed suspicion about links with Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives party.

Such concerns were only stoked by Shelton's comments in The Australian on Thursday saying "no" campaigners now wanted to become "activists and advocates" on wider public policy issues defending families, freedom and conservative values. In rhetoric echoing Bernardi's, he said "an increasingly large section of the Liberal Party" had abandoned freedom of speech and religion.

The Coalition for Marriage told Fairfax Media it will not pass on its subscriber base to Bernardi's party. Bernardi said he hadn't discussed it with them, but emphasised: "We have a lot in common with the Coalition for Marriage. There is only one political party that shares their values."

Bernardi, who will defy the country's verdict and vote against same-sex marriage in Parliament, will set his sights on beefing up carve-outs in the law for religious organisations. He concedes marriage equality proponents have "the numbers to do whatever they like", but says a few key changes to the bill "may assuage the concerns of a great many of us".

Moderate Liberal MPs feel their task is a whole lot easier as a result of Wednesday's resounding verdict. Most expected a "yes" vote in the mid-to-high 50s: the fact it had a six in front of it robs conservatives of ammunition. That was evident in the rapid collapse of senator James Paterson's rival marriage bill, which one senior Liberal described as "f---ing crazy" and reminiscent of the Jim Crow era in the United States. Cormann publicly threw the bill under the bus and by Thursday Dutton was hinting Dean Smith's bill could proceed more or less unchanged, with the religious freedom debate punted into the new year.

Smith's real brainwave was the Senate inquiry into Brandis' draft marriage bill. It produced close to a cross-party consensus position on marriage reform, eliminating what could have been a messy partisan battle in the wake of the "yes" vote. "It avoided the type of internal split within the 'yes' case that destroyed the republican movement," says Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman.

One proposal Labor may look to compromise on is the protection of religious charities that continue to advocate traditional marriage. How far this would go – such as church-run nursing homes refusing to accept married gay couples – remains unclear.

Another key demand from some, including Cormann, is the right for civil celebrants – not just religious ministers – to refuse to officiate a gay wedding. Of the conservatives, Labor takes Cormann's views the most seriously, but most Labor MPs would be reluctant to back discrimination on conscientious grounds by civil celebrants.

Overall, the signs now point to a quicker, easier debate than first anticipated. The firm public mandate, and the hardened resolve of cabinet, mean the bill will get through in some way, shape or form by Christmas.

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Entsch, who is in New York on a secondment with the United Nations, will return to Australia to take part in the historic vote. He watched chief statistician David Kalisch announce the result on a TV screen in a packed Aussie bar in Manhattan, at a gathering organised by a friend. On the trip home, he got a clear view of the Empire State Building.

"It was lit up in rainbow colours. That really blew me away," he says. "Even in New York. This is not something that just been celebrated in Australia, it has been celebrated around the world. I'm very proud of it."

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