A Test Of Fear And More. Who Is Going To Putin On May 9 And Why

The Kremlin is getting ready for another “Victory parade.” And they are very nervous lest Ukraine should spoil the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany.
After Kyiv rejected Putin's unilateral proposal for a three-day ceasefire and Moscow ignored Zelenskyy and the US call for a 30-day truce, the Kremlin resorted to threats once again. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, became the mouthpiece. Traditionally using the terms “green unshaven scum” and “louse,” he hurled threats on his Telegram channel: “In the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one can guarantee that Kyiv will live to see May 10.”
The hysteria in the Kremlin is quite understandable.
As in previous years, the “Victory parade” has sacred and practical significance for the Russian leadership. The cult of the Soviet victory in the Great Patriotic War, cultivated for decades, requires another solemn demonstration to domestic and foreign audiences of the greatness of the “victorious people” and their leaders on Red Square. Otherwise, it would be interpreted by ordinary Russians and Z-patriots as a sign of weakness on the part of the Russian authorities, the Kremlin and Putin himself.
Against the backdrop of sanctions and ongoing aggression against Ukraine, the appearance of foreign leaders on the Red Square podium on May 9 is a demonstration that Putin is not internationally isolated and that Russia has allies. The arrival in Moscow for the May 9 parade of anyone from the Trump administration would be the jackpot for the Kremlin. But although the propaganda Zvezda channel announced the possible arrival of Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, the White House is not yet willing to give such a gift to the Kremlin's master.
In 2022, the year when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine started, not a single foreign leader attended the “Victory parade.” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained their absence by saying that it was not a jubilee of victory in the Great Patriotic War.
In 2023, seven heads of state and government attended the parade on Red Square. All of them were from CIS countries, namely Nikol Pashinyan (Armenia), Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), Qasym-Jomart Toqaev (Kazakhstan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), Serdar Berdimuhamedov (Turkmenistan) and Sadyr Zhaparov (Kyrgyzstan).
Last year, on May 9, nine heads of state, also mainly leaders of CIS countries, arrived in Moscow: Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), Qasym-Jomart Toqaev (Kazakhstan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), Serdar Berdimuhamedov (Turkmenistan) and Sadyr Zhaparov (Kyrgyzstan). The parade was also attended by President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez of Cuba, President Thongloun Sisoulith of Laos and President Umaro Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau.
Despite the fact that the presidents of Azerbaijan and Laos, Ilham Aliyev and Thongloun Sisoulith, refused to travel to Moscow, twenty-seven (!) heads of state and government are planning to participate in this year's “Victory parade” in a country that is waging a genocidal war against its neighbor:
- President of partially recognized Abkhazia Badra Gunba;
- Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan;
- Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko;
- Chairwoman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Željka Cvijanović;
- President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva;
- President of Burkina Faso Ibrahim Traoré;
- President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro;
- President of Guinea-Bissau Umaro Sissoco Embaló;
- General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Tô Lâm;
- President of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi;
- President of Zimbabwe Emmerson Mnangagwa;
- President of Kazakhstan Qasym-Jomart Tokayev;
- President of China Xi Jinping;
- President of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel;
- President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Zhaparov;
- President of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh;
- Prime Minister of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing;
- President of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas;
- President of the Republic of the Congo Denis Sassou-Nguesso;
- President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić;
- Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico;
- President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon;
- President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov;
- President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev;
- President of Equatorial Guinea Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo;
- Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed Ali;
- President of the partially recognized South Ossetia Alan Gagloev.
The steep increase in the number of leaders expected at the “Victory parade” is primarily due to changes in relations between Russia and the US, the developing situation on the front lines and the prospect of a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire. Their arrival in Moscow on May 9 is undoubtedly a public show of support for the aggressor.
However, for many leaders from Asia, Latin America, Africa and the post-Soviet area, being present on Red Square on May 9 is a ritual that, on the one hand, emphasizes their loyalty to Moscow and, on the other, provides an opportunity to bargain for additional economic and political benefits for their countries. Against the backdrop of the reshaping of global alliances, participation in the “Victory parade” is becoming less an act of ideological solidarity and more a pragmatic diplomatic gesture.
The visit of President Xi Jinping of China fits not so much into the official Chinese historiography of the outcome of World War II as a joint victory of the USSR and China, but rather into the context of the geopolitical confrontation between Beijing and Washington, which has now erupted into a tariff war. Xi needs to show Trump the special partnership between the two nuclear powers, Russia and the PRC: Beijing fears the possibility of a significant warming of relations between Moscow and Washington and Russia's shift to the US side.
Attending the parade is a signal to Washington about the high level of political trust between Beijing and Moscow. In addition, Xi Jinping's trips always carry a high personal and political element. Public support for Putin is a continuation of their personal alliance. At bilateral talks, they will discuss “the further development of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation, as well as pressing issues on the international and regional agenda.”
Unlike China, India continues to reduce its presence at the “Victory parade.” Initially, the country was to be represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Later, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh was to attend. Ultimately, Delhi decided that the deputy defense minister, Sanjay Seth, would go to Moscow instead. There is a serious reason for this: the terrorist attack in Pahalgam and the threat of armed conflict with Pakistan. However, Delhi does not wish to ignore the invitation completely.
This is not because the Indian army has a lot of Russian weapons and military equipment. Nor is it because Moscow, which has good relations with Islamabad, has sided with Delhi in the current Indo-Pakistani conflict. For India, Russia is a counterweight to China. By developing relations with Moscow, Delhi hopes that Russia will not switch completely to the side of Beijing. Moreover, today's India is a global power that seeks to present itself as an self-standing powerhouse and therefore deliberately pursues a policy that is independent of both the US and Russia.
President Lula da Silva of Brazil is traveling to Moscow not to support Russia's war against Ukraine but to propel his own idea of a new world order in which his country is an independent global player, not subordinate to either the West or the East. He seeks to strengthen Brazil's image as a leader of the Global South and a neutral party in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is in line with Brazil's foreign policy tradition of not supporting sanctions against Russia and not providing military assistance to Ukraine.
Brazil and Russia are key members of BRICS. Recently, this alliance has been expanding and claiming to be an alternative to Western “clubs.” In addition, Russia is a significant partner for Brazil in the import of petroleum products and fertilizers, especially potash, which is critical for the Brazilian agricultural sector. Finally, the trip to Russia is also beneficial for Lula da Silva personally, as it shapes his image as a politician capable of talking to Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
On May 9, the leader of another BRICS member, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, will be on Red Square. For him, the trip to Moscow is a way to diversify relations amid cooling ties between Cairo and Washington: the Trump administration has not ruled out reconsidering its military aid to Egypt and is demanding free passage for American ships through the Suez Canal. With this in mind, El-Sisi has already strengthened Egypt's cooperation with the EU in an attempt to obtain financial and political support from European countries.
Apparently, for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the main argument in favor of attending the May 9 parade on Red Square was a potential meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev amid the stalled peace talks between Yerevan and Baku. However, Aliyev will not be attending the “Victory parade” in Moscow. Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov explained his absence by the need to participate in internal events dedicated to Heydar Aliyev.
But this is an excuse. Most likely, Aliyev was simply dissatisfied with the lack of a public apology from the Russian leadership for the fact that Russian air defense forces shot down an Azerbaijani plane in the skies over Chechnya.
But if Aliyev can afford this defiance, Pashinyan must take into account that Moscow has many levers of influence over Yerevan. Pashinyan will not burn his bridges, considering the presence of the Armenian diaspora in Russia and Armenia's dependence on Russia in energy, communications and food industry. Pashinyan must take into account the new realities in the region, which compel Armenia, if not to maintain Russia's favor, then at least not to antagonize it.
The dependence of Minsk on Moscow also forces self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to demonstrate loyalty. Lukashenko now feels much more secure in power than he did in August 2020 and is trying to adapt to the foreign policy environment. However, the regime is totally dependent on Russia economically and politically, and this dependence is not weakened by trade, economic and political relations with China.
For the leaders of Central Asian states (President Qasym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, Sadyr Zhaparov of Kyrgyzstan, Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan and Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan), visiting Red Square on May 9 is a ritual that has remained unchanged since the Soviet era. Even while distancing themselves from Russia, as Kazakhstan is doing, they cannot ignore Moscow's influence in the region and are forced to take into account the fact that hundreds of thousands of members of their national communities live and work there.
As pragmatic politicians, they balance between China and Russia: Beijing has serious economic and financial levers of influence in the region, while Moscow has political and military ones. For example, Tajikistan remains dependent on Russia for security, given the threats emanating from Afghanistan. However, the heads of the Central Asian states did not even have to manoeuvre between Russia and China this time, given Xi Jinping's presence at the parade in Moscow. Again, this may be an opportunity for them to meet with the Chinese leader.
For President Serdar Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan, the trip to Moscow is not only a demonstration of his country's neutrality but also a desire not to quarrel with a player who has significant resources for internal political destabilization. Again, Berdimuhamedov is taking into account the presence of Xi Jinping, Putin and other leaders, which gives him an opportunity to once again legitimize his own status at a time when his father has no intention of relinquishing his de facto power.
President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh of Mongolia is also trying to handle the problem facing his country: being squeezed between Russia and China. An oasis of democracy in a desert of autocracy, Mongolia is dependent on Russia economically and on China logistically. In this situation, the Mongolian leadership has no way of ignoring the requests of its Russian comrades. For example, this was the case with Putin's visit to Mongolia, despite the International Criminal Court warrant. All the more so since Xi is also attending this year’s “Victory parade.”
In general, Xi Jinping's trip has given a ‘green light’ to many countries forced to balance between the superpowers — China, the US and Russia. This is the case for Vietnam, whose CPV General Secretary Tô Lâm will also be sitting in the stands among the guests of the “Victory parade.” Hanoi has a lot of Russian weapons in its arsenal. In addition, Russia has a significant presence in Vietnam's energy sector. The country's leadership hopes for new political and economic benefits from ties with Russia.
For Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing of Myanmar, attending the “Victory parade” is a matter of preserving further Russian military and diplomatic support for the junta that came to power after a military coup in 2021: Russia supplies Myanmar with huge quantities of weapons and, along with China, prevents the leadership from becoming internationally isolated. In this situation, the junta has no right to ignore the invitation of its ally.
For the presidents of Venezuela, Cuba and Burkina Faso, Nicolás Maduro, Miguel Díaz-Canel and Ibrahim Traoré, participation in an event to which their countries have very little connection is an attempt to deepen ties with a country they perceive as an alternative to the West. Their presence on Red Square on May 9 is a demonstration of unity with an ally and gratitude for the political, economic and military support to their regimes. For Burkina Faso, Russia is an arms supplier. Moreover, the local president's power is largely maintained by Russian private military companies.
President Umaro Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau plans to celebrate May 9 in Moscow for the second year in a row. The reason for his trip is a mixture of sentimentality and pragmatism. In Guinea-Bissau, there are strong pro-Russian sentiments among the elite, who remember the Soviet assistance in the post-colonial period and associate this gratitude with present-day Russia. But Umaro Sissoco Embaló is also interested in Russian investments and loans. These issues will obviously be key in bilateral negotiations with the Russians.
Weapons, loans and political support are the issues that determine the interest of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Congolese President Denis Sassou-Nguesso and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in Russia. But while Zimbabwe and the Republic of the Congo are long-standing partners of Moscow, the presence of the Ethiopian prime minister at the “Victory parade” reflects the African state's desire to secure political and military support in current and future conflicts with neighboring countries.
Following Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who has been in power in Equatorial Guinea since 1979, has already visited Moscow twice, in November 2023 and September 2024. Against the backdrop of tense relations with the West, he sees Russia as a tool for ensuring his personal security and developing natural resources: last fall, Moscow sent about 200 soldiers from the African Corps to Equatorial Guinea.
For President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, the trip to Moscow is an important opportunity to meet with other leaders during challenging times. It reaffirms his legitimacy at a juncture when Israel and the US see no future in the idea of a Palestinian state. For him, it is a chance to meet with the leaders of Russia and China and try to enlist their support with respect to the war in the Gaza Strip and the tough stance of Washington and Tel Aviv.
The only leader of an EU member state who has announced his intention to attend the parade on Red Square is Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia.
He came to power on a wave of pro-Russian and anti-NATO slogans. Emphasizing independence from Brussels, Fico is bringing Slovakia closer to Hungary, developing political and economic relations with Russia and criticizing Ukraine for its resistance to Russia and unwillingness to allow Russian gas to flow through Ukrainian pipelines. Behind this position lies populism and pragmatism: the desire to continue receiving cheap Russian gas, which is important for the Slovak economy that is going through difficult times. In addition, Fico needs to show his leadership within the ruling coalition.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary was also expected at the “Victory parade.” He is in conflict with the European Commission, has taken anti-Ukrainian decisions and is actively developing relations with Russia and Putin. However, despite his pro-Russian rhetoric and actions, he is not going to Moscow. One version has it that the reason for his absence is party opposition: there were objections within the ruling Fidesz party to Orbán's trip to the “Victory parade,” and the Hungarian prime minister was forced to take the party consensus into account. Another version is that Orbán eventually decided to heed the words of European Commission representatives.
President Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia has already arrived in Moscow. For some time, his presence on Red Square was in question: he felt unwell during his visit to the US, which, according to him, even forced him to cancel his meeting with Trump. After that, there was talk of canceling his trip to Russia. Earlier, EU representatives said that the presence of European leaders at the parade on Red Square was unacceptable: Brussels hinted that Vučić's visit would have repercussions for Serbia's European integration.
However, Vučić is balancing between Russia and the European Union and ignored the EU's warning. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, he is facing pressure from Serbian voters, most of whom are pro-Russian. Secondly, Vučić has to take into account that Russia supplies Serbia with gas at a low price, and he hopes to sign a new contract with a preferential price. Thirdly, the Serbian president needs Russia's political support to counterbalance the European Union.
The intention of the Chairwoman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Željka Cvijanović, to take part in Putin's “Victory parade” came as a surprise. The media reported on the trip to Moscow of the president of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik: accused of attempting to undermine the constitutional order, he needs Russia's political and financial support. It is unknown whether he will be on Red Square on May 9. But Cvijanović is a long-time ally of Dodik. She will try to use the trip to obtain money from Russia for the Republic of Serbian Krajina, which is experiencing serious economic problems.
As for the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Badra Gunba and Alan Gagloev, their presence on Red Square is a way to strengthen their own power in the unrecognized republics, where there are many different clans of influence and serious opposition to the authorities, and an opportunity to demonstrate their loyalty to the Kremlin. Moreover, Gunba and Gagloev had no chance to decline the invitation: Abkhazia and South Ossetia are completely dependent on Russia’s funding and military assistance.
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May 9, 2025, in Moscow is not a demonstration of remembrance for the victims of a war that ended 80 years ago. It is a political show where each participant pursues their own goals. Some come to Putin for weapons, some for fertilizers and some simply do not want to quarrel with a neighbor who has a nuclear stick. Therefore, the increase in the number of foreign leaders on Red Square is not a sign of the Kremlin's growing international influence. The “Victory parade” is a mirror of a changing world, where countries, balancing between the interests of the US, China and Russia, seek to gain the maximum benefit.
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